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Saturday, September 17, 2005
How I see the National League MVP race
Okay, let’s make this quick and painless, since I’m at work and I don’t necessarily like my conclusion. I think we all agree that the top candidates for National League MVP are Albert, Derrek Lee, and Andruw Jones.
Albert Pujols vs. Andruw Jones
Ummm, Pujols pretty much wins every category other than home runs and RBI. Albert’s OPS is 92 points higher than Andruw’s at the moment; he has walked 25 more times and struck out 42 fewer times; he has scored 27 more runs, stolen 12 more bases, hit eleven more doubles; and, for those who care about this, his batting average is 62 points higher. In the runs created race (runs created is defined here...it's a good shorthand stat), Pujols is ahead by almost 27 runs. These advantages completely outweigh the eleven-home run, sixteen-RBI advantage Jones holds in those two categories (one of which is just about worthless).
Let’s all get over the home runs. Sure, he has hit a lot of them, but Andruw Jones is not the MVP.
Albert Pujols vs. Derrek Lee
Here’s where I get mad. Comparing Pujols to Derrek Lee, Lee comes out ahead. His OPS is 38 points higher; he has hit 4 more home runs; his 46 doubles outpace Pujols by 11; they’re pretty even in hits and runs, and they’re tied for stolen bases with 15 each. Pujols’ 137.5 runs created are bested only by Lee’s 144.9.
Even if you somehow call the offensive stats between them a draw, defensively, Derrek Lee wins hands-down. Pujols’ range factor of 11.23 is almost two plays higher than Lee’s, but (a) Pujols has 250 more total chances than Lee and (b) I’m willing to bet that this is at least partly due to the Cardinals pitchers' ability to induce more groundballs than the Cubs pitchers, meaning that Albert is on the receiving end of more outs at first. When it comes to zone rating (a better gauge of defensive abilities), Lee holds a slight advantage, and he has 25 more assists than Pujols (again, with fewer total chances).
Derrek Lee: MVP
You (I) hear a lot of people saying that a player can’t be the MVP unless his team gets into the playoffs. The "rationale" behind this sentiment runs thusly: if the team that had him didn’t make the playoffs, how valuable could he be? Well, some teams are just really, really bad, and even one awesome player can’t help them overcome their suckiness. Would the Cubs have made the playoffs if Andruw Jones or Albert Pujols played for them? No. Would the Cardinals have won the NL Central if they had Derrek Lee? Yes. Would any team be better if they had Derrek Lee (and, to lesser degrees, Albert Pujols or Andruw Jones)? Yes.
As much as I hate to admit it (you really have no idea), Derrek Lee should win the MVP.
...I’m getting pretty sick of one stupid player a year having a better season than Albert. What’s he gotta do to get one, baseball gods? One thing that makes me happy: Albert is the youngest of the three.
Albert Pujols vs. Andruw Jones
Ummm, Pujols pretty much wins every category other than home runs and RBI. Albert’s OPS is 92 points higher than Andruw’s at the moment; he has walked 25 more times and struck out 42 fewer times; he has scored 27 more runs, stolen 12 more bases, hit eleven more doubles; and, for those who care about this, his batting average is 62 points higher. In the runs created race (runs created is defined here...it's a good shorthand stat), Pujols is ahead by almost 27 runs. These advantages completely outweigh the eleven-home run, sixteen-RBI advantage Jones holds in those two categories (one of which is just about worthless).
Let’s all get over the home runs. Sure, he has hit a lot of them, but Andruw Jones is not the MVP.
Albert Pujols vs. Derrek Lee
Here’s where I get mad. Comparing Pujols to Derrek Lee, Lee comes out ahead. His OPS is 38 points higher; he has hit 4 more home runs; his 46 doubles outpace Pujols by 11; they’re pretty even in hits and runs, and they’re tied for stolen bases with 15 each. Pujols’ 137.5 runs created are bested only by Lee’s 144.9.
Even if you somehow call the offensive stats between them a draw, defensively, Derrek Lee wins hands-down. Pujols’ range factor of 11.23 is almost two plays higher than Lee’s, but (a) Pujols has 250 more total chances than Lee and (b) I’m willing to bet that this is at least partly due to the Cardinals pitchers' ability to induce more groundballs than the Cubs pitchers, meaning that Albert is on the receiving end of more outs at first. When it comes to zone rating (a better gauge of defensive abilities), Lee holds a slight advantage, and he has 25 more assists than Pujols (again, with fewer total chances).
Derrek Lee: MVP
You (I) hear a lot of people saying that a player can’t be the MVP unless his team gets into the playoffs. The "rationale" behind this sentiment runs thusly: if the team that had him didn’t make the playoffs, how valuable could he be? Well, some teams are just really, really bad, and even one awesome player can’t help them overcome their suckiness. Would the Cubs have made the playoffs if Andruw Jones or Albert Pujols played for them? No. Would the Cardinals have won the NL Central if they had Derrek Lee? Yes. Would any team be better if they had Derrek Lee (and, to lesser degrees, Albert Pujols or Andruw Jones)? Yes.
As much as I hate to admit it (you really have no idea), Derrek Lee should win the MVP.
...I’m getting pretty sick of one stupid player a year having a better season than Albert. What’s he gotta do to get one, baseball gods? One thing that makes me happy: Albert is the youngest of the three.
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